Warriors vs Mavericks Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

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With the Golden State Warriors just one win away from the NBA Finals, will the Dallas Mavericks fight back 3-0, or will the Western Conference Finals end in a sweep Tuesday, May 24?

We make our NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs Warriors Game 4 – and find there’s reason to believe the Mavericks’ season isn’t over yet.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each regulated sports betting market.

The line for Mavericks vs. Warriors held steady at -1 Dallas. The total opened, and stayed, at 215.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track all future line moves up to the warning and be sure to check all NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 Predictions

Predictions made on 05/24/2022 at 1:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to go to the full analysis.

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Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 info

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Date: Tuesday, May 24, 2022
Trick: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: DTT

Warriors vs Mavericks Series Odds

Warriors: -10,000
Mavericks: +1,800

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 betting preview

Key injuries

Warriors: Gary Payton II (Out), Otto Porter Jr. (Doubtful), Andre Igoudala (Out).
Mavericks: Tim Hardway Jr. (Away).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend you need to know

The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs Mavericks.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and total in this match. Our best bet is our preferred choice in all markets.

Propagation analysis

While that streak is technically still alive after the Warriors’ dominating Game 3 win, make no mistake, it’s over. In 146 previous 3-0 series, no NBA team has successfully come back to ultimately win in a Game 7, and this won’t be the series where that changes. However, that doesn’t mean the series will end on Tuesday night. Indeed, the Warriors have a penchant for playing with their food before securing the eventual victory, and a few other factors are likely to see Dallas pick up its first win of the series.

Remember, the Warriors’ biggest loss in this playoff series came at the hands of the Memphis Grizzlies, but only after Ja Morant was lost to the series. Without Ja, the Grizzlies’ chances in the series were essentially zero, and the Warriors relaxed so much that they ended up dropping 39 points instead of closing the series in Game 5. Of course, Memphis also had to play exceptionally fine on his home court to prevent a Warriors win, but Dallas can do just that. All it will take is a better shot chance.

Looking at their Game 3 loss, this was another instance of the Mavericks significantly underperforming their typical shot. According to ShotQuality, the Mavericks would generally expect to win Game 3 83% of the time based on both teams’ shooting regimes. It’s easy to see where they failed.

The Mavericks shot 28.9 percent from 3, with Davis Bertans going 0-2. Maxi Kleber 0-5 and Reggie Bullock 0-7 from deep (and 0-10 overall). Eight of Bullock’s shots were uncontested, and so were Kleber’s five. It wasn’t a masterstroke of the Warriors’ defense (which culminated in Game 1), but rather a classic and incredibly ill-timed night for Mavericks role players.

I’m betting on a shooting regression and for the Mavericks to play with a bit of desperation tonight. I like Dallas to cover.

Prediction: Mavericks -1 (-110 bet365)

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Over/under analysis

While Dallas’ offense should improve dramatically in Game 4, what seems much less likely is that their defense will keep pace. The Warriors have absolutely sculpted the Mavericks on the inside throughout this series, exposing their lack of rim protection time and time again.

After scoring an absurd 62 points in the paint in Game 2, the Warriors still had 46 points inside in Game 3, with Steph Curry in particular seeming to go to the edge at will. Dwight Powell has struggled to see the ground in this series, and Maxi Kleber hasn’t been as effective as a rim protector as he was against the Phoenix Suns.

Also, as we usually expect a disappointing game from the Warriors, this impacts the Total in two ways. The first thing that slips when the Warriors don’t bring their A-game is that they throw the ball all over the gym. Much of their success in Game 3 came down to the fact that they limited themselves to 10 turnovers while averaging 15.6 per game in these playoffs.

But in that aforementioned closing attempt against the Grizzlies, they totaled a staggering 22 turnovers. Warriors turnovers are often of the bad pass type, resulting in quick transition points for the opposing team.

When the Warriors lose ball discipline, it also infects their defensive intensity. Despite all the focus on the Warriors’ offense, it’s often their defense (that series with Kevon Looney and Andrew Wiggins) that has brought them close games. But the way they play defense requires discipline and focus from all five players, especially since Draymond has only been inconsistently excellent this playoff.

The Mavericks offense should bounce back and the Warriors will likely give them their fair share of openings. All this points to the Plus.

Prediction: Over 215.5 (-110 bet365)

Best bet

Outside of Game 3, which was the prototypical shooting variance loss, Dallas has been steady at home through the playoffs, going 5-1 ATS in its last six home games. Additionally, in his short career so far, Luka Doncic has been a monster in playoff playoff games, averaging a record 38.0 ppg in the four games he has played to date.

It doesn’t help Golden State’s cause that, immediately after their Game 3 win, Steph Curry remarked that they could now play with “house money” in Game 4. Apart from that series, the Warriors generally haven’t covered well this year. (41-37-4 ATS in the regular season), and their tendency to mess around rather than close the deal is part of the math here. The Warriors know the series is functionally over, and if they play like this, Dallas should be in a strong position to win.

To take: Mavericks -1 (-110 bet365)

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